Download Brazil: Socail Protection in a Modest Macroeconomic Context

Brazil: Socail Protection in a
Modest Macroeconomic Context
Context
Brazil: Rapid growth, the middle income trap and a new trajectory (?)
Per capita GDP
30
25
Middle income trap: 0.6%
20
15
Escape?: 2.7%
Rapid growth: 4.7%
10
5
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
Year
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Results
Inequality
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.59
Hyperinflation
0.58
0.59
0.58
0.59
0.57
0.56
0.55
0.54
0,6 Gini points / year
0.53
0.52
0.50
0.45
Gini
0.40
1976
1981
1986
1991
Year
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
Inequality: Comparison with UK and USA
UK
USA
Gini
Gini
50
0,2 Gini points / year
27 years duration
46
42
38
50
0,6 Gini point / year
15 years duration
46
42
0,5 Gini point / year
16 years duration
38
34
34
30
30
26
1900
1920
1940
Year
1960
1980
26
1920
1940
Year
1960
1980
Extreme poverty (close to $1 /day PPP)
Extreme poverty (%)
12
10
9.8
9.2
9.8
9.2
9.0
8
7.4
Bolsa Familia
6.8
6
5.5
4.6
4.2
4
3.9
3.5
Brasil Sem Miseria
2
0
1994
1999
2004
Year
2009
2014
Poverty (close to $2 /day PPP)
Poverty (%)
30
24.8
25
24.9
23.9
24.7
23.4
21.9
20.4
20
16.8
15
13.7
Bolsa Familia
12.9
10.6
10
8.5
Brasil Sem Miseria
5
0
1994
1999
2004
Year
2009
2014
Bolsa Familia
Policies
700
600
jan-16
jan-14
jan-12
jan-10
jan-08
jan-06
jan-04
jan-02
Month/Year
jan-00
jan-98
jan-96
jan-94
jan-92
jan-90
jan-88
jan-86
jan-84
0
recovery
500
Minimum Wage in R$
Minium Wage
800
400
300
low growth
200
hyperinflation
100
Education
9
0.45
0.44
0.43
0.45
0.42
0.40
8.02
0.39
0.370.37
Average years of education (15+)
7
6.87
7.19
0.35
6.54
6.37
6
5
7.58
0.34
7.73
0.33
0.32
6.07
5.51
0.40
0.35
0.30
5.76
5.22
0.25
4
0.20
3
0.15
2
0.10
1
0
1990
0.05
1995
2000
2005
Year
2010
0.00
2015
Gini years of education
8
0.50
Transfers as a percentage of GDP
18%
16%
16.2%
15.7%
14%
14.4%
12.8%
Transfers as a % of GDP
12%
10%
14.7%
14.8%
14.3%
13.1%
11.0%
Brasil Sem Miseria
8%
6%
Bolsa Familia
4%
2%
0%
1990
1995
2000
Year
2005
2010
2015
Concentration
PBF Income
(acumulated and
normalized to 1.00)
1.00
82%
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.00
Poorest
0.20
0.40
0.60
--> Increasing Income --> Richest
Population (acumulated and normalized to 1.00)
0.80
1.00
Concentrating and deconcentrating transfers
60%
Neutral
Concentrating and deconcentrating transfers
50%
0.52
0.49
0.49
0.47
0.45
0.44
40%
0.53
0.52
0.51
0.47
0.50
0.51
0.49
0.43
0.41
0.42
0.38
0.39
0.39
0.37
Concentrating
0.37
0.37
30%
Brasil Sem Miseria
20%
Deconcentrating
0.13
0.14
0.11
10%
0.06
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.06
Bolsa Familia
0%
1992
1996
2000
2004
Year
2008
2012
2016