Download revisión de publicaciones

BANCO CENTRAL DE CHILE
REVISIÓN DE PUBLICACIONES
DICIEMBRE 2014
Esta sección tiene por objetivo presentar las más recientes investigaciones publicadas sobre diversos
tópicos de la economía chilena. La presentación se divide en dos partes: una primera sección de
listado de títulos de investigaciones y una segunda de títulos y resúmenes de publicaciones. Las
publicaciones están agrupadas por área temática, considerando la clasificación de publicaciones del
Journal of Economic Literature ( JEL), y por orden alfabético de los autores.
CATASTRO DE PUBLICACIONES RECIENTES
Los resúmenes de los artículos indicados con (*) se presentan en la siguiente sección.
Código JEL: E / MACROECONOMÍA Y ECONOMÍA MONETARIA
Cashin P., K. Mohaddes y M. Raissi (2014). “Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of
El Niño”. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics N°1418.
Chávez, R. y C. García (2014). “Ciclo Económico y Reforma Tributaria en Fases: Experiencia de
la Economía Chilena”. Documento de Investigación N°299, Facultad de Economía y Negocios,
Universidad Alberto Hurtado.
Correa, J., C. Ferrada, P. Gutiérrez y F. Parro (2014). “Effects of Fiscal Policy on Private Consumption:
Evidence from Structural-Balance Fiscal Rule Deviations”. Applied Economics Letters 21(10-12):
776–81.
Elbadawi, I., K. Schmidt-Hebbel y R. Soto (2014). “Why Do Countries Have Fiscal Rules?”
Documento de Trabajo N°452, Departamento de Economía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de
Chile.
Ffrench-Davis, R. y R. Heresi (2014). “La Economía Chilena frente a la Crisis Financiera: Respuestas
Contracíclicas y Desafíos Pendientes”. Documento de Trabajo N°393, Departamento de Economía,
Universidad de Chile.
*Fuentes, F. y C. García (2014). “Ciclo Económico y Minería del Cobre en Chile”. Documento de
Investigación N°301, Facultad de Economía y Negocios, Universidad Alberto Hurtado.
Guarin, A., A. González, D. Skandails y D. Sánchez (2014). “An Early Warning Model for Predicting
Credit Booms Using Macroeconomic Aggregates”. Ensayos sobre Política Económica 32(73):
77–86.
Jean, S., N. Mulder y M. Ramos (2014). “A General Equilibrium, Ex-post Evaluation of the EU-Chile
Free Trade Agreement”. Economic Modelling 41(0): 33–45.
Klemm, A. (2014). “Fiscal Policy in Latin America over the Cycle”. IMF Working Papers N°14/59.
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Messina, J. y L. Gambett (2014). “Evolving Wage Cyclicality in Latin America”. Policy Research
Working Paper Series N°6978, Banco Mundial.
Código JEL: F / ECONOMÍA INTERNACIONAL
Bonilla, A. (2014). “External Vulnerabilities and Economic Integration: Is the Union of South
American Nations a Promising Project?” Journal of Economic Development 39(2): 97–131.
Camacho, M. y G. Pérez-Quiroz (2014). “Commodity Prices and the Business Cycle in Latin America:
Living and Dying by Commodities?” Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 50(2): 110–37.
Duran, I. y M. Ryan (2014). “Spillover Effects from Inward FDI on the Exporting Decisions of
Chilean Manufacturing Plants”. Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade 14(3): 393–414.
Hales, A. y A. Mollick (2014). “The Impact of ADR Activity on Stock Market Liquidity: Evidence
from Latin America”. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 54(3): 417–27.
Hegerty, S. (2014). “Interest-Rate Volatility and Volatility Transmission in Nine Latin American
Countries”. Applied Financial Economics 24(13-15): 927–37.
*McQuoid, A. y L. Rubini (2014). “Trade Costs and Markups”. Documento de Trabajo N°454,
Departamento de Economía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.
Código JEL: G / ECONOMÍA FINANCIERA
Aslan, C. y D. Duarte (2014). “How Do Countries Measure, Manage, and Monitor Fiscal Risks
Generated by Public-Private Partnerships? Chile, Peru, South Africa, Turkey”. Policy Research
Working Paper Series N°7041, Banco Mundial.
Jiang, L. y Y. Zhu (2014). “Effects of Foreign Institutional Ownership on Foreign Bank Lending:
Some Evidence for Emerging Markets”. International Review of Finance 14(2): 263–93.
*Kast, F. y D. Pomeranz (2014). “Saving More to Borrow Less: Experimental Evidence from Access
to Formal Savings Accounts in Chile”. NBER Working Paper N°20239.
Opazo, L., C. Raddatz y S. Schmukler (2014). “Institutional Investors and Long-term Investment:
Evidence from Chile”. Policy Research Working Paper Series N°6922, Banco Mundial.
Código JEL: O / DESARROLLO ECONÓMICO, CAMBIO TECNOLÓGICO Y CRECIMIENTO
Basso, L. y H. Silva (2014). “Efficiency and Substitutability of Transit Subsidies and Other Urban
Transport Policies”. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 6(4): 1–33.
*Edwards, S. y A. García (2014). “Constitutional Rights and Education: An International
Comparative Study”. NBER Working Paper N°20475.
Dutz, M., S. O’Connell y J. Troncoso (2014). “Public and Private Investments in Innovation
Capabilities: Structural Transformation in the Chilean Wine Industry”. Policy Research Working
Paper Series N°6983, Banco Mundial.
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BANCO CENTRAL DE CHILE
Ffrench-Davis, R. (2014). “Neoestructuralismo y Macroeconomía para el Desarrollo”. Documento
de Trabajo N°391, Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Chile.
Ffrench-Davis, R., (2014). “Is Chile a Model for Economic Development?” Documento de Trabajo
N°392, Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Chile.
Hausmann, R., C. Hidalgo, D. Stock y M.A. Yildirim (2014). “Implied Comparative Advantage”.
John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Working Paper Series N°RWP14-003.
Nishida, M., A. Petrin y S. Polanec (2014). “Exploring Reallocation’s Apparent Weak Contribution
to Growth”. Journal of Productivity Analysis 42(2): 187–210.
Saravia, A., C. Machicado y F. Rioja (2014) “Productivity, Structural Change and Latin American
Development”. Review of Development Economics 18(3): 610–24.
Código JEL: Y / NO CLASIFICADOS
Anaya, K. y M. Pollitt (2014). “Does Weather Have an Impact on Electricity Distribution Efficiency?
Evidence from South America”. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics N°1424.
Cáceres, J. y E. Giolito (2014). “The Impact of Age of Entry on Academic Progression”. Documento
de Investigación N°304, Facultad de Economía y Negocios, Universidad Alberto Hurtado.
Carneiro, P., E. Galasso y R. Ginja (2014). “Tackling Social Exclusion: Evidence from Chile”. CEPR
Discussion Papers N°9950.
Comerio, M. (2014). “Disaster Recovery and Community Renewal: Housing Approaches”.
Cityscape: A Journal of Policy Development and Research 16(2): 51–68.
Engel, E. y A. Galetovic (2014). “Urban Transport: Can Public-Private Partnerships Work ?” Policy
Research Working Paper Series N°6873, Banco Mundial.
Espinosa, J., J. Friedman y C. Yévenes (2014). “Adverse Shocks and Economic Insecurity: Evidence
from Chile and Mexico”. Review of Income and Wealth 60(0): S141–58.
Fink, C., C. Helmers y C. Ponce (2014). “Trademarks Squatters: Theory and Evidence from Chile”.
Documento de Investigación N°305, Facultad de Economía y Negocios, Universidad Alberto
Hurtado.
*Grau, N., D. Hojman, C. Labra y A. Mizala (2014). “Destructive Creation: School Turnover and
Educational Attainment”. Documento de Trabajo N°396, Departamento de Economía, Universidad
de Chile.
Neudorfer, P. y J. Dresdner (2014). “Does Religious Affiliation Affect Migration?” Papers in Regional
Science 93(3): 577–94.
Pardo, C. y W. Schott (2014). “Health Insurance Selection in Chile: A Cross-sectional and Panel
Analysis”. Health Policy and Planning 29(3): 302–12.
Raveau, S., Z. Guo, J. Muñoz y N. Wilson (2014). “A Behavioural Comparison of Route Choice on
Metro Networks: Time, Transfers, Crowding, Topology and Socio-demographics”. Transportation
Research: Part A: Policy and Practice 66(0): 185–95.
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ECONOMÍA CHILENA | VOLUMEN 17, Nº3 | DICIEMBRE 2014
Ross, L. y D. Pelletiere (2014). “Chile’s New Rental Housing Subsidy and Its Relevance to U.S.
Housing Choice Voucher Program Reform,” Cityscape: A Journal of Policy Development and
Research 16(2): 179–91.
Sánchez, A. (2014). “Policies for Making the Chilean Labour Market More Inclusive”. OECD
Economics Department Working Paper N°1117.
Vale, L., S. Shamsuddin, G. Shomon, A. Gray y K. Bertumen (2014). “What Affordable Housing
Should Afford: Housing for Resilient Cities”. Cityscape: A Journal of Policy Development and
Research 16(2): 21–49.
RESÚMENES DE ARTÍCULOS SELECCIONADOS
Los textos presentados a continuación son transcripciones literales del original.
Código JEL: E / MACROECONOMÍA Y ECONOMÍA MONETARIA
*Fuentes, F. y C. García (2014). “Ciclo Económico y Minería del Cobre en Chile”. Documento de
Investigación N°301, Facultad de Economía y Negocios, Universidad Alberto Hurtado.
El presente artículo endogeniza la oferta de cobre, incorporando la demanda por insumos el sector minero
correspondiente a otros bienes de la economía, en específico bienes intermedios, y a energía, en un modelo
macroeconómico estándar de equilibrio general (DSGE) para una muestra 2003-2013. La estimación del
modelo revela que un aumento de 1% del precio del cobre causa un aumento de 0,16% en el PIB en cinco
años. La principal contribución del estudio es mostrar que si se considera al sector minero integrado al resto de
la economía, en vez de suponer que es un enclave, como usualmente se hace, los efectos del precio del cobre
sobre la economía chilena por lo menos se duplican.
*McQuoid, A. y L. Rubini (2014). “Trade Costs and Markups”. Documento de Trabajo N°454,
Departamento de Economía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.
We explore the effects of trade costs on markups by building a new model consistent with three stylized facts:
exporters charge higher markups, markups increase when starting to export, and domestic and foreign sales are
negatively correlated, which suggests decreasing returns. We calibrate the model to Chilean data, and simulate
reductions in trade costs. Most markups increase along the intensive margin, and unambiguously decline along
the extensive margin. This follows from prices adjusting less than marginal costs, which increase with output
but decline as trade costs fall, resulting in pro-competitive effects on new exporters, but anti-competitive effects
for incumbent exporters.
Código JEL: G / ECONOMÍA FINANCIERA
*Kast, F. y D. Pomeranz (2014). “Saving More to Borrow Less: Experimental Evidence from Access
to Formal Savings Accounts in Chile”. NBER Working Paper N°20239.
Poverty is often characterized not only by low and unstable income, but also by heavy debt burdens. We find
that reducing barriers to saving through access to free savings accounts decreases participants’ short-term
debt by about 20%. In addition, participants who experience an economic shock have less need to reduce
consumption, and subjective well-being improves significantly. Precautionary savings and credit therefore act
as substitutes in providing self-insurance, and participants prefer borrowing less when a free formal savings
account is available. Take-up patterns suggest that requests by others for participants to share their resources
may be a key obstacle to saving.
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Código JEL: O / DESARROLLO ECONÓMICO, CAMBIO TECNOLÓGICO Y CRECIMIENTO
*Edwards, S. y A. García (2014). “Constitutional Rights and Education: An International
Comparative Study”. NBER Working Paper N°20475.
We investigate whether the inclusion of social rights in political constitutions affects social performance. More
specifically, we analyze whether including the right to education in the constitution has been related to better
“educational outcomes.” We rely on data for 61 countries that participated in the 2012 PISA tests. Our results
are strong and robust to the estimation technique: we find that there is no evidence that including the right
to education in the constitution has been associated with higher test scores. The quality of education depends
on socioeconomic, structural, and policy variables, such as expenditure per student, the teacher-pupil ratio, and
families’ background. When these covariates are excluded, the relation between the strength of constitutional
educational rights and the quality of education is negative and statistically significant. These results are important
for emerging countries that are discussing the adoption of new constitutions, such as Thailand and Chile.
Código JEL: Y / NO CLASIFICADOS
*Grau, N., D. Hojman, C. Labra y A. Mizala (2014). “Destructive Creation: School Turnover and
Educational Attainment”. Documento de Trabajo N°396, Departamento de Economía, Universidad
de Chile.
In this paper we analyze the effect of school entry and exit in the Chilean market oriented educational system.
During the period 1994-2012 nearly 2,150 schools closed (more than 2,800 if pre-K and kindergarten centers are
included): nearly one-fifth of the current stock of schools. Close to 3,800 new schools entered the school system,
mostly voucher private schools. Given this significant school turnover we estimate the potential “productivity
gains” associated to market’s creative destruction dynamics by studying its impact on standardized achievement
tests. We find that, at the municipality level, school turnover predicts only minor changes in school performance
after controlling for parents socioeconomic status. Finally, we estimate the potential educational costs of this
dynamics, trying to identify the causal effect of school closure on grade repetition and high school dropout rates.
Using a large panel of individual student data that contains academic achievement and socio-demographic
controls, we identify a causal effect of school closures on grade retention and school dropouts. School exit is
associated with a 50 per cent increase in the probability of grade repetition (2.5 percentage points) and a 79
per cent increase the probability school dropout in tenth grade (1.1 percentage points).
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