Download Overcoming the present financial crisis

EL MODO DE DESARROLLO
DE CHINA Y SUS
CONSECUENCIAS SOBRE LA
ECONOMIA MUNDIAL Y
AMERICA LATINA
Robert Boyer
Seminario, Facultad de Ciencias
Económicas Universidad Nacional,
el 5 de Agosto 2014, Bogota
I. CHINA IS EXPLORING AN
UNPRECEDENTED FORM
OF CAPITALISM
1. A genuine co-evolution of institutions and
organizations
2. A definite institutional architecture: a
régulationist analysis
3. The macroeconomic regime: trade surplus is
compensating structural domestic unbalances
4. China after the subprime crisis: a confirmation
of a genuine régulation mode and
accumulation regime
5. The uncertain re-composition of the world
economy
1. A GENUINE CO-EVOLUTION OF
INSTITUTIONS AND
ORGANIZATIONS
 The four stages in the transformation of the
Chinese economy
The progressive emergence of the present competition-led accumulation regime
1949–1976
Succession of five cycles with major instabilities
1978–1992
First wave of economic reforms
 Introduction of markets and contracts on top of the existing institutions
 Competition by entry and no privatization
 Decentralization of authority and resources
 Cautious and pragmatic approach
 Declining government share in GDP
 Creation of Export-Processing Zones
 Higher household savings channeled into the banking system
Reforms without
loser
1993–2001
Reforms with
loser
2001–2010
Cautious
external
liberalization
The second wave of economic reforms
 Strengthening of market economy institutions
 Market unification
 Company law and diversification of ownership
 State-sector downsizing; beginning of privatization
 Focus on finance and regulation
 China becomes net importer of oil (1993)
 Creation of Export-Processing Zones
 Recentralization of resources, macroeconomic control
 Surge in FDI
Accession to WTO
 Creation of SASAC: monitoring State Ownership (2003)
 Large openness to FDI, in order to diffuse frontier technologies and organizations
 Trading market access for technology
A common feature in all periods
High saving and investment rates
 A complex hybrid form: the local State corporatism
From a series of local corporatisms to Chinese macro dynamism
AUTHORS
Jean C. Oi (2002)


Krug Barbara &
Hendrischke Hans (2008)


Marie-Claire Bergère
(2007)


Jean-Luc Domenach
(2008)
CONSEQUENCES FOR THE
ARGUMENTS


Irena Grosfeld (1987)

Heng-fu Zou (1991)

Tax responsibility for each
administrative level allows local
government entrepreneurship
Rural governments as local
corporations
Constrained cooperation game
between local governments and
local businesses
Complementarity and alignment of
interests at the local level
A party/State promotes the
transformation of bureaucrats into
an emerging capitalist class
After 1990, urban entrepreneurs
are more dynamic than rural ones
Nestedness of public and private
sectors
Mobility of the elite from political
to economic and vice versa
A specificity of
investment decisions in planned
economies
When the elite have both political
power and economic resources in
control, they may maximize
investment growth rate
SOCIOECONOMIC REGIME

An incentive for rural
industrialization

A possible synergy between polity
and economy
Business-government and micromacro level networking







Institutional competition among
local entities
Entrepreneurial success is linked
to the proximity to public
administration
Permanent exchange between
economic and political spheres
A basic compromise: “Promise of
better standards of living against
political monopoly of the
Communist Party”
Growth as the core objective
A transposition to the local level
of a theory of social planning
 Las vinculaciones entre la política y la economía, el
local y el nacional
2. A DEFINITE INSTITUTIONAL
ARCHITECTURE: A
RÉGULATIONIST ANALYSIS
 La dominación
de la
competencia
sobre las otras
formas
institucionales
 La integración en la economía mundial: la
consecuencia del compromiso de base sobre el
crecimiento
Figura 2: La competencia y la sobreinversión impulsan la apertura internacional de China
Amenaza de
reacción
proteccionista
FORMAS DE COMPETENCIA
Competencia encarnizada:
sobreinversión
Superávit comercial
permanente
RELACIÓN SALARIAL
Trabajadores segmentados y
serializados
Participación salarial a
la baja
Régimen de acumulación en
desequilibrio
Inserción
asimétrica en la
economía
internacional
Control activo
mediante la moneda
y los créditos
Reconfiguración
periódica de las
formas
institucionales
3. THE MACROECONOMIC
REGIME: TRADE SURPLUS IS
COMPENSATING STRUCTURAL
DOMESTIC UNBALANCES
 A structurally unbalanced growth pattern
A declining output
capital ratio and profit
share
Source: Minqi Li (2007), p. 45.
El declino de la participación de les salarios y del consumo
La tendencia à la sobre acumulación
Source: Minqi Li (2007), p. 44.
Source: Minqi Li (2007), p. 43.
 El desafío del Estado Central: moderar el
dinamismo de numerosos comparatismos locales
4. CHINA AFTER THE SUBPRIME
CRISIS: A CONFIRMATION OF A
GENUINE RÉGULATION MODE
AND ACCUMULATION REGIME
 Beijing’s sustained capacity to monitor the Chinese
economy:
Acute competition among localities, provinces, firms,
individuals…
But the Communist Party apparatus is centralizing a
vast bulk of information
The key role of credit controls
The strong anti-cyclical credit policy of China in reaction to the subprime crisis
(annual growth rate)
House price
Credit
Source: Artus (2010b), p. 6.
Figure 10.8 – Stopping the reevaluation of the yuan in order to promote industrial
recovery
Spot rate
3 months ahead
6 months ahead
9 months ahead
1 year ahead
Source: Artus (2010c), p. 8.
 A possible exacerbation of the structural domestic
imbalances
After 2008: still more investment and less consumption shares in GDP
Household consumption
Export
Investment
Source: Artus (2010b), p. 5.
 Overcoming income distribution and productive
structure inertia
The absence of independent unions representing the
interests of the workers
The low wage share makes quite unlikely a wageconsumption-led regime
Minimum wage policy is implemented at the
decentralized level
A strategy for implementing a minimalist welfare: more
a safety net than an efficient tool for income
redistribution
A possible opportunity: the emerging scarcity of skilled
workers
II. THE UNCERTAIN RECOMPOSITION OF THE WORLD
ECONOMY
 China: a key player in the emerging new
international regime
The United States, China, and the rest of the world
United States
Consumer of last resort
Center of financial
intermediation
Raw
materials
Trade surplus
Financing of external / public
deficit
The rest of the World
THIRD WORLD: boom of raw materials
EMERGING ECONOMIES:
de-industrialization
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES:
financialization and de-industrialization
China
As the engine of
growth in Asia, saver
of the world
Raw materials
 Trade, foreign investment, natural resources: the
strong imprint of China
 The complex and contradictory impact of China’s
ascent
Positive and negative impacts of China upon the world economy
+
–
1. More export to China
4. Less employment in low skills
manufactured sectors
2. More purchasing power via lower
consumer prices
5. Progressive acquisition of frontier
technologies: possible decline of high
skill employment
3. Lower long term interest rates
6. Rapid rise of raw material prices
A deepening of national specialization: a possible complementarity between LatinAmerica and China?
30
Dominican Republic 2006
Turkey 2000
25
Dominican Republic 2000
20
Turkey 2006
Uruguay 2000
15
Costa Rica 2006
ACR Services marchands
Poland 2000
India 2006
10
Costa Rica 2000
Uruguay 2006
Hong Kong 2006
Hong Kong 2000
5
Czech Republic 2000
Hungary 2000
Poland 2006 Slovak Republic 2000
Slovak Republic 2006
Hungary 2006
Australia 2006
Australia 2000
New Zealand 2006
South Africa 2006
New Zealand 2000
0
Mexico 2006
Chile 2000
-5
Ecuador 2006
AMLAT 2000
Malaysia 2006
Bolivia 2000
Colombia 2006
Chile 2006
Peru 2000
Argentina 2006
Peru 2006
India 2000
Czech Republic 2006
Mexico 2000
South Africa 2000
Taipei 2006
China 2006Korea 2000
China 2000
Taipei 2000
Thailand 2000
Korea 2006
Brazil 2000
Thailand 2006
Malaysia 2000
AMLAT 2006
Colombia 2000
-10
Brazil 2006
Ecuador 2000
Venezuela 2006
Argentina 2000
Bolivia 2006
-15
Ireland 2006
Saudi Arabia 2006
Venezuela 2000
Saudi Arabia 2000
Source : Luis Miotti, Carlos Quenan
(2009)
Ireland 2000
-20
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
ACR Industrie Manufacturière
10
20
30
40
 The future is open: a multiplicity of scenarios
Mixing domestic and international evolutions: a multiplicity of futures
DOMESTIC
A STRUCTURAL CRISIS OF
OVER ACCUMULATION
A BREAKING DOWN OF
REGIONAL / SOCIAL
GOVERNABILITY
INTERNATIONAL
Major conflict with the
US and unstable world
system
A gloomy world scenario
with unexpected fallout
An asymmetric Asian
regional integration
A major crisis of Asian
integration
An inward looking
China, as a self
contained empire
A possible sequence: the
crisis triggers an inward
looking regime
A renewed American
hegemony and long
downwards swing for
China
A possible reduction of
some barriers to Asian
integration but less
dynamism
Loss of appetite of China
for regional integration
SMOOTH TRANSITION
TOWARD A DOMESTIC LED
REGIME
A softening of
international frictions and
unbalances
Less regional frictions
due to a decline of
Chinese structural
competitiveness
A strong
complementarity between
domestic / international
evolutions
CONCLUSION
C1 – China is exploring an unprecedented brand
of capitalism built upon the dynamic
interactions between a myriad of local
corporatisms.
No equivalent in régulationist taxonomies, nor in varieties of
capitalism approaches (Both liberal and coordinated!)
C2 – The high Chinese growth is not only an
example of fast catching-up but also of an
unbalanced competition-led accumulation
regime
C3 – The accumulation of trade surpluses and
reserves are the direct consequences of a
declining wage share, and not of a typically
mercantilist strategy. Tomorrow, China might
be the starting point of a major world crisis
Excess of accumulation and permanent
recreation of bad performing loans
Rising social and regional inequalities
Drastic environmental problems
Severe international frictions over natural
resources appropriation
C4 – The new Chinese strategy aiming at a
domestic demand-led growth regime is quite
clear and able to reduce international frictions
but it might be limited by the inertia of a
typical profit-led accumulation regime.
C5—The last decade has experienced new links
between Latin America as provider of natural
resources and China industrializing boom.
C6– This South /South restructuring of the
international relations will drastically depend
upon the resilience of the Chinese growth
regime.
Thanks for your attention
and patience
Robert BOYER
Institute of the Americas
e-mail : [email protected]
web sites : http://robertboyer.org
http://www.jourdan.ens.fr/~boyer/