Download Análisis - bróker Bankinter

Análisis
30 ene. 2013
Comunicado de la Fed (FOMC)
COMUNICADO DE PRENSA DEL FOMC: 30 de enero de 2013.
1.- Esquema del mensaje y diferencias con el anterior.Anterior: Mensaje del 12 de diciembre de 2012
Actual: Mensaje del 30 de enero de 2013
Information received since the Federal Open Market
Committee met in October suggests that economic activity
and employment have continued to expand at a moderate
pace in recent months, apart from weather-related
disruptions. Although the unemployment rate has
declined somewhat since the summer, it remains
elevated. Household spending has continued to advance,
and the housing sector has shown further signs of
improvement, but growth in business fixed investment has
slowed. Inflation has been running somewhat below the
Committee’s longer-run objective, apart from temporary
variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices.
Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Information received since the Federal Open Market
Committee met in December suggests that growth in
economic activity paused in recent months, in large
part because of weather-related disruptions and other
transitory factors. Employment has continued to expand at
a moderate pace but the unemployment rate remains
elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment
advanced, and the housing sector has shown further
improvement. Inflation has been running somewhat below
the Committee’s longer-run objective, apart from temporary
variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices.
Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee
seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.
The Committee remains concerned that, without sufficient
policy accommodation, economic growth might not be
strong enough to generate sustained improvement in
labor market conditions. Furthermore, strains in global
financial markets continue to pose significant downside
risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also
anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will
run at or below its 2 percent objective.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure
that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with
its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing
additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of
$40 billion per month. The Committee also will purchase
longer-term Treasury securities after its program to
extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury
securities is completed at the end of the year, initially at a
pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is
maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal
payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency
mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed
securities and, in January, will resume rolling over
maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together,
these actions should maintain downward pressure on
longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets,
and help to make broader financial conditions more
accommodative.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks
to foster maximum employment and price stability. The
Committee
expects
that,
with appropriate
policy
accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a
moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually
decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with
its dual mandate. Although strains in global financial
markets have eased somewhat, the Committee continues to
see downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee
also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely
will run at or below its 2 percent objective.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure
that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with
its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing
additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of
$40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities
at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is
maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal
payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency
mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed
securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at
auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain
downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support
mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial
conditions more accommodative.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information
on economic and financial developments in coming
months. If the outlook for the labor market does not
improve substantially, the Committee will continue its
purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed
securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate,
until such improvement is achieved in a context of price
stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of
its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take
appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such
purchases.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on
economic and financial developments in coming months. If
the outlook for the labor market does not improve
substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of
Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and
employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such
improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In
determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset
purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate
account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
To support continued progress toward maximum
employment and price stability, the Committee expects
that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy
will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the
asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery
strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep
To
support
continued
progress
toward
maximum
employment and price stability, the Committee expects that
a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will
remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset
purchase program ends and the economic recovery
http://broker.bankinter.com/
Equipo de Análisis de Bankinter
(Sujetos al RIC)
Pilar
Aranda
http://www.bankinter.com/
Ramón Forcada
Beatriz Martín
Jesús Amador Castrillo
Rebeca Delgado
Ana Achau (Asesoramiento)
Eva del Barrio
Ana de Castro
Todos los informes los encontrarás aquí: https://broker.bankinter.com/www/es-es/cgi/broker+asesoramiento
Por favor, consulte importantes advertencias legales en:
http://broker.bankinter.com/www/es-es/cgi/broker+binarios?secc=NRAP&subs=NRAP&nombre=disclaimer.pdf
* Si desea acceder directamente al disclaimer seleccione sobre el link la opción "open weblink in Browser" con el botón derecho del su ratón.
Paseo de la Castellana, 29
28046 Madrid
30 ene. 2013
the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4
percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally
low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at
least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 61/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is
projected to be no more than a half percentage point
above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and
longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well
anchored. The Committee views these thresholds as
consistent with its earlier date-based guidance. In
determining
how
long
to
maintain
a
highly
accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee
will also consider other information, including additional
measures of labor market conditions, indicators of
inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and
readings on financial developments. When the Committee
decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will
take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run
goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S.
Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman;
Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto;
Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein;
Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen.
Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who
opposed the asset purchase program and the
characterization of the conditions under which an
exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be
appropriate.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20121212a.
htm
Análisis
Comunicado de la Fed (FOMC)
strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep
the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent
and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range
for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long
as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent,
inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be
no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s
2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation
expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining
how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of
monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other
information, including additional measures of labor market
conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation
expectations, and readings on financial developments. When
the Committee decides to begin to remove policy
accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent
with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and
inflation of 2 percent.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S.
Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman;
James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome
H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C.
Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against
the action was Esther L. George, who was concerned that the
continued high level of monetary accommodation increased
the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and,
over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation
expectations.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20130130a.htm
2.- Decisión de política monetaria.La decisión de la Fed de hoy es claramente continuista en sus dos vertientes fundamentales:
Mantiene el tipo de intervención sin cambios en el rango 0%/0,25% y afirma que se mantendrá en estos
niveles mientras la tasa de paro se mantenga en niveles superiores al 6,5% y las expectativas de
inflación en un plazo de 1 a 2 años no superen el 2,5%.
Se mantiene el programa de compra de activos en 85 bn.$ mensuales que fue anunciado en diciembre,
compuesto por 40 bn.$ en MBS y 45 bn.$ en bonos del Tesoro.
La Fed insiste en que el objetivo de estas medidas es continuar presionando a la baja los tipos de interés a largo
plazo mejorar las condiciones de acceso al crédito y contribuir a la reducción de la tasa de paro para cumplir con
su doble mandato de estabilidad de precios y fomento del empleo.
3.- Visión sobre la economía
La diferencia más relevante de este comunicado con respecto al anterior radica en el reconocimiento por parte
de la Fed de que la actividad económica se ha frenado en los últimos meses, debido al impacto de algunos
factores transitorios como el huracán Sandy. Esta visión es más negativa que la mostrada en meses anteriores,
en los que se hacía referencia a un crecimiento moderado de la economía. Esta visión de la Fed es coherente con
la contracción del PIB de EE.UU. en el 4T’12 (-0,1% en tasa trimestral anualizada) que se ha publicado hoy.
Se mantiene una valoración positiva acerca de la evolución del consumo familiar y la inversión empresarial y en
vivienda y se reitera que el empleo continúa mejorando, pero la reducción de la tasa de desempleo continúa
siendo muy lenta.
http://broker.bankinter.com/
Equipo de Análisis de Bankinter
(Sujetos al RIC)
Pilar
Aranda
http://www.bankinter.com/
Ramón Forcada
Beatriz Martín
Jesús Amador Castrillo
Rebeca Delgado
Ana Achau (Asesoramiento)
Eva del Barrio
Ana de Castro
Todos los informes los encontrarás aquí: https://broker.bankinter.com/www/es-es/cgi/broker+asesoramiento
Por favor, consulte importantes advertencias legales en:
http://broker.bankinter.com/www/es-es/cgi/broker+binarios?secc=NRAP&subs=NRAP&nombre=disclaimer.pdf
* Si desea acceder directamente al disclaimer seleccione sobre el link la opción "open weblink in Browser" con el botón derecho del su ratón.
Paseo de la Castellana, 29
28046 Madrid
30 ene. 2013
Análisis
Comunicado de la Fed (FOMC)
La inflación se sitúa actualmente en niveles ligeramente inferiores a los objetivos de largo plazo de la Fed, por lo
que no supone un riesgo destacable para la economía americana.
Las votaciones muestran un enfoque muy similar al de anteriores reuniones, tras haberse producido la rotación
entre algunos de los miembros de la Fed con derecho a voto. Las decisiones de política monetaria se han
adoptado con una amplia mayoría de 11 votos a favor y uno en contra. El único voto opuesto al programa de
compra de activos ha sido el de Esther L. George, que ha adoptado el rol hawkish anteriormente representado
por Lacker, argumentando que el QE3 implica riesgos de desequilibrios financieros e inflación en el largo plazo.
4.- Opinión e impacto sobre el mercado.
La Fed ha adoptado una estrategia claramente continuista y ha decidido mantener los tipos en 0/0,25% y el
programa de compra de bonos en 85 bn.$, lo que no supone ninguna sorpresa ya que son medidas anunciadas
muy recientemente y no era previsible ningún cambio.
Después de que las actas de la reunión de diciembre mostraran las dudas de varios miembros sobre la
continuidad de las compras de activos y que consideraran que podría ser apropiado ralentizar o frenar la compra
de activos mucho antes de que termine 2013, la Fed no hace referencia en este comunicado a un posible freno
en sus programas de estímulo monetario. Más bien al contrario, el frenazo puntual que ha sufrido la economía
americana en el 4T’12 parece dar argumentos adicionales a la Fed para mantener su política monetaria actual
hasta finales de 2013.
La reacción del mercado ha sido bastante fría, y tanto el S&P500 como el Dow Jones continúan cayendo
levemente (-0,1%). El bono americano a 10 años ha mantenido su TIR en 2,0%, mientras el dólar ha
experimentado un mínimo retroceso hasta 1,356$.
http://broker.bankinter.com/
Equipo de Análisis de Bankinter
(Sujetos al RIC)
Pilar
Aranda
http://www.bankinter.com/
Ramón Forcada
Beatriz Martín
Jesús Amador Castrillo
Rebeca Delgado
Ana Achau (Asesoramiento)
Eva del Barrio
Ana de Castro
Todos los informes los encontrarás aquí: https://broker.bankinter.com/www/es-es/cgi/broker+asesoramiento
Por favor, consulte importantes advertencias legales en:
http://broker.bankinter.com/www/es-es/cgi/broker+binarios?secc=NRAP&subs=NRAP&nombre=disclaimer.pdf
* Si desea acceder directamente al disclaimer seleccione sobre el link la opción "open weblink in Browser" con el botón derecho del su ratón.
Paseo de la Castellana, 29
28046 Madrid