Download revisión de publicaciones

BANCO CENTRAL DE CHILE
REVISIÓN DE PUBLICACIONES
AGOSTO 2015
Esta sección tiene por objetivo presentar las más recientes investigaciones
publicadas sobre diversos tópicos de la economía chilena. La presentación se
divide en dos partes: una primera sección de listado de títulos de investigaciones
y una segunda de títulos y resúmenes de publicaciones. Las publicaciones están
agrupadas por área temática, considerando la clasificación de publicaciones del
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL), y por orden alfabético de los autores.
CATASTRO DE PUBLICACIONES RECIENTES
Los resúmenes de los artículos indicados con (*) se presentan en la siguiente
sección.
Código JEL: E / MACROECONOMÍA Y ECONOMÍA MONETARIA
*Edwards, S. (2015). “Monetary Policy Independence under Flexible Exchange
Rates: An Illusion?” NBER Working Paper N°20893.
Grigoli, F., A. Herman, A. Swiston y G. Di Bella (2015). “Output Gap Uncertainty
and Real-Time Monetary Policy”. IMF Working Paper N°15/14.
Tafunell, X. y C. Ducoing (2015). “Non-Residential Capital Stock in Latin
America, 1875-2008”. Economics Working Paper N°1472, Department of
Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
Código JEL: F / ECONOMÍA INTERNACIONAL
Loaiza-Maya, R.A, J.E. Gomez-Gonzalez y L.F. Melo-Velandia (2015). “Exchange
Rate Contagion in Latin America”. Research in International Business and
Finance 34: 355–67.
Rojas-Suárez, L. y J.M. Serena (2015). “Changes in Funding Patterns by Latin
American Banking Systems: How Large? How Risky?” Documento de Trabajo
N°1521, Banco de España.
*Wagner, R. y A. Zahler (2015). “New Exports from Emerging Markets: Do
Followers Benefit from Pioneers?” Journal of Development Economics 114: 203–23.
Código JEL: G / ECONOMÍA FINANCIERA
Araya, F., M. Jara, C. Maquieira y P. San Martín (2015). “Influencia de los
Inversionistas Institucionales en las Decisiones de Estructura de Capital de la
Empresa”. El Trimestre Económico 82(2): 279–311.
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*Cueto, D. y L. Switzer (2015). “Intraday Market Liquidity, Corporate
Governance, and Ownership Structure in Markets with Weak Shareholder
Protection: Evidence from Brazil and Chile”. Journal of Management and
Governance 19(2): 395–419.
Dima, B., S.M. Dima y F. Barna (2015). “A Wavelet Analysis of Capital Markets’
Integration in Latin America”. Applied Economics 47(10-12): 1019–36.
Tuesta, D. (2015). “The Informal Economy and the Constraints that It Imposes
on Pension Contributions in Latin America”. Documento de Trabajo N°1419,
Banco BBVA.
Código JEL: O / DESARROLLO ECONÓMICO, CAMBIO TECNOLÓGICO Y CRECIMIENTO
Álvarez, R., C. Bravo-Ortega y A. Zahler (2015). “Innovation and Productivity
in Services: Evidence from Chile”. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 51(3):
593–611.
Astorga, P. (2015). “Functional Inequality in Latin America: News from the
Twentieth Century”. Working Papers N°135, Department of Economics, Oxford
University.
Bustos-Salvagno, J. y F. Fuentes (2015). “Interconexión Eléctrica en Chile:
Precios versus Costos”. Documento de Investigación N°310, Facultad de
Economía y Negocios, Universidad Alberto Hurtado.
Chacón, E., S. Katherine. y D. Paredes (2015). “Desigualdad Espacial de Ingresos
en Chile y su Relación con la Concentración de Capital Humano”. El Trimestre
Económico 82(2): 351–77.
Correa, J.A., F. Parro y L. Reyes (2015). “Self-Selection in the Market of
Teachers”. Applied Economics 47(13-15): 1331–49.
Cruces, G., P. Lanjouw, L. Lucchetti, E. Perova, R. Vakis y M. Viollaz (2015).
“Estimating Poverty Transitions Using Repeated Cross-Sections: A ThreeCountry Validation Exercise”. Journal of Economic Inequality 13(2): 161–79.
Espinoza, C. (2015). “Share Contract Choices and Economic Performance:
Empirical Evidence from the Artisanal Fisheries Sector in Chile”. Marine
Resource Economics 30(1): 71–95.
Fuentes, C. (2015). “Shifting the Status Quo: Constitutional Reforms in Chile”.
Latin American Politics and Society 57(1): 99–122.
Joubert, C. (2015). “Pension Design with a Large Informal Labor Market:
Evidence from Chile”. International Economic Review 56(2): 673-94.
Martínez, C., E. Puentes y J. Ruiz-Tagle (2015). “Do Micro-Entrepreneurship
Programs Increase Wage-Work? Evidence from Chile”. Documento de Trabajo
N°461, Departamento de Economía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.
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Miranda, P., C.A. Blazquez, R. Vergara y S. Weitzler (2015). “A Novel Methodology for
Designing a Household Waste Collection System for Insular Zones”. Transportation
Research: Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 77(C): 227–47.
*Modrego, F., P. Mccann, W.E. Foster y M.R. Olfert (2015). “Regional
Entrepreneurship and Innovation in Chile: A Knowledge Matching Approach”.
Small Business Economics 44(3): 685–703.
Patrinos, H.A. y C. Sakellariou (2015). “Adult Literacy, Heterogeneity and
Returns to Schooling in Chile”. Education Economics 23(1-2): 122–36.
Pomeranz, D. (2015). “No Taxation without Information: Deterrence and SelfEnforcement in the Value Added Tax”. American Economic Review 105(8): 2539–69.
Schueftan, A. y A.D. González (2015). “Proposals to Enhance Thermal Efficiency
Programs and Air Pollution Control in South-Central Chile”. Energy Policy 79:
48–57.
Sittler, M., J. Abud, B. Hall y C. Helmers (2015). “An Empirical Analysis of
Primary and Secondary Pharmaceutical Patents in Chile”. NBER Working
Paper N°20995.
Código JEL: Y / NO CLASIFICADOS
Beyer, H., J. Hastings, C. Neilson y S. Zimmerman (2015). “Connecting Student
Loans to Labor Market Outcomes: Policy Lessons from Chile”. American
Economic Review 105(5): 508–13.
Bharadwaj, P., G. De Giorgi, D. Hansen y C. Neilson (2015). “The Gender Gap
in Mathematics: Evidence from a Middle-Income Country”. Federal Reserve
Bank of New York Staff Report N°721.
Bustos-Salvagno, J. y F. Fuentes (2015). “Economic Effects of Transmission
Expansions: the Case of the Regulated Contract Market in Chile”. Documento
de Investigación N°309, Facultad de Economía y Negocios, Universidad Alberto
Hurtado.
Cáceres-Delpiano, J., E. Giolito y S. Castillo (2015). “Early Impacts of College
Aid”. Documento de Investigación N°311, Facultad de Economía y Negocios,
Universidad Alberto Hurtado.
Díaz Hurtado, F. y F. Lefort (2015). “External Conditions, the Evolution of
Financial Risks, and the Informational Content of Stock Prices: The Case of
Chile”. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 51: S42–57.
Fairfield, T. (2015). “La Economía Política de la Reforma Tributaria Progresiva
En Chile”. Revista de Economía Institucional 17(32): 129-56.
Figueroa, E. y R. López (2015). “Fundamental Accrued Capital Gains and the
Measurement of Top Incomes: An Application to Chile”. Documento de Trabajo
N°409, Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Chile.
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*Engel, E., R. Fischer y A. Galetovic (2015). “Soft Budgets and Renegotiations
in Public-Private Partnerships: Theory and Evidence”. Documento de Trabajo
N°317, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
García-Marín, A. y N. Voigtländer (2015). “Exporting and Plant-Level Efficiency
Gains: It’s in the Measure”. Documento de Trabajo N°405, Departamento de
Economía, Universidad de Chile.
Gazmuri, C., J. Manzi y R.D. Paredes (2015). “Disciplina, Clima y Desempeño
Escolar en Chile”. CEPAL Review 115: 115–28.
Jara, M., J. Dresdner y W. Gómez (2015). “Derechos Colectivos en Pesca
Artesanal y los Intercambios en la Política Pesquera: Un Análisis de las Políticas
Distributivas”. Estudios de Economía 42(1): 53–78.
Prada, M., G. Rucci, y S.S. Urzúa (2015). “The Effect of Mandated Child Care
on Female Wages in Chile”. NBER Working Paper N°21080.
Umaña, B., J. Cabas, J. Rodríguez y M. Villablanca (2015). “Variables
Explicativas del Comportamiento del Inversor de Multifondos. Un Análisis
desde la Perspectiva de los Inversores en el Sistema de Pensiones Chileno”.
Estudios Gerenciales 31(135): 183–90.
Sánchez, A., J.M. García de la Cruz y A. del Sur Mora (2015). “Comercio
Internacional, Materias Primas y Enfermedad Holandesa: Estudio Comparativo
de los Efectos Estáticos en Noruega y Chile”. World Economy Journal 39: 179–99.
Schnettler, B., M. Denegri, H. Miranda, J. Sepulveda, L. Orellana y G. Paiva (2015).
“Family Support and Subjective Well-Being: An Exploratory Study of University
Students in Southern Chile”. Social Indicators Research 122(3): 833–64.
Toledo, G. y J.P. Valenzuela (2015). “Overestimating the Effects of Teacher
Attributes on School Performance in the Chilean Education System”. Estudios
de Economía 42(1): 99–128.
RESÚMENES DE ARTÍCULOS SELECCIONADOS
Los textos presentados a continuación son transcripciones literales del original.
Código JEL: E / MACROECONOMÍA Y ECONOMÍA MONETARIA
*Edwards, S. (2015). “Monetary Policy Independence under Flexible Exchange
Rates: An Illusion?” NBER Working Paper N°20893.
I analyze whether countries with flexible exchange rates are able to pursue an
independent monetary policy, as suggested by traditional theory. I use data for
three Latin American countries with flexible exchange rates, inflation targeting,
and capital mobility—Chile, Colombia and Mexico—to investigate the extent
to which Federal Reserve actions are translated into local central banks’ policy
rates. The results indicate that there is significant “policy contagion,” and that
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these countries tend to “import” Fed policies. The degree of monetary policy
independence is lower than what traditional models suggest.
Código JEL: F / ECONOMÍA INTERNACIONAL
*Wagner, R. y A. Zahler (2015). “New Exports from Emerging Markets: Do
Followers Benefit from Pioneers?” Journal of Development Economics 114:
203–23.
We study the micro dynamics of new exports from a country. The modern
international trade workhorse models (e.g. Melitz, 2003) assume heterogeneous
productivity and, implicitly, predict that the ex-post largest exporters in a new
product would be the pioneers, since they can pay back exploration costs. However,
using detailed data on the early dynamics of new exports in Chile (1990–2007)
we show that, on average, pioneers export less than comparable followers in the
same new product. Moreover, followers are 40% more likely to enter a product
if a pioneer survives more than one year exporting. These facts are consistent
with pioneer-to-follower spillovers, or at least with stories in which the cost of
entering early is disproportionally higher for larger exporters. Otherwise they
would enter first. Firms better at “exploration” could be worse at “exploitation”
(scale-up) in a new export product. This phenomenon is scarce, though, since in
most new products pioneers are not followed, even if they survive.
Código JEL: G / ECONOMÍA FINANCIERA
*Cueto, D. y L. Switzer (2015). “Intraday Market Liquidity, Corporate
Governance, and Ownership Structure in Markets with Weak Shareholder
Protection: Evidence from Brazil and Chile”. Journal of Management and
Governance 19(2): 395–419.
This paper investigates the effects of very highly concentrated ownership
structures on the liquidity of stock markets in a context of weak protection
for minority shareholders. Such structures are prevalent in a number of
European markets as well as in various developing markets, as opposed to US
markets. Two alternative hypotheses are tested. The shareholder expropriation
hypothesis predicts an inverse relationship between liquidity and ownership
concentration for the dominant shareholder. The dominant monitor-insider
hypothesis contends that dominant shareholders are not detrimental to
market liquidity, since they have incentives to reduce their costs of exit and/
or to improve the information transfer of their value enhancing activities to
markets. Our empirical results are more consistent with the latter. We find
that alternative governance mechanisms also have liquidity enhancing effects
for Brazilian and Chilean firms. In particular, cross-listing in the US market
and the threat of outside takeovers serve as monitoring devices to reduce
informational asymmetries.
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Código JEL: O / DESARROLLO ECONÓMICO, CAMBIO TECNOLÓGICO Y CRECIMIENTO
*Modrego, F., P. Mccann, W.E. Foster y M.R. Olfert (2015). “Regional
Entrepreneurship and Innovation in Chile: A Knowledge Matching Approach”.
Small Business Economics 44(3): 685–703.
We provide a method of empirically testing the model using a dynamic knowledge
matching (KM) function, which is applied to data on patent applications and
new firms in Chilean municipalities for the period 2002-2008. The estimations
confirm the explanatory power of the KM mechanism regarding the spatial
variation of innovation in the country, a result that is largely robust to the
consideration of other main hypotheses of regional innovation. This evidence
warrants further consideration of the spatial dimension of innovation in the
country. It also suggests that there are unexploited synergies to be had between
support policies for innovation and support policies for entrepreneurship in the
context of regional development initiatives.
Código JEL: Y / NO CLASIFICADOS
*Engel, E., R. Fischer y A. Galetovic (2015). “Soft Budgets and Renegotiations
in Public-Private Partnerships: Theory and Evidence”. Documento de Trabajo
N°317, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are an increasingly popular organizational
form of providing public infrastructure. They can increase efficiency and improve
resource allocation, yet pervasive contract renegotiations cast doubts on whether
they should be preferred over public provision.
Renegotiating a PPP contract allows the present government to extract resources
from future governments in exchange for current infrastructure spending by the
PPP. This option is not available under public provision. We develop a model
that formalizes this idea and predicts that government will use renegotiations
to anticipate spending and shift payments to future administrations. Regulating
renegotiation procedures so as to avoid opportunistic behavior does not avoid
the use of renegotiations to anticipate government spending, changing fiscal
accounting rules does.
We analyze data from Chile, Colombia and Peru, comprising 59 highway PPPs
and 535 renegotiation processes, to conclude that the evidence is broadly
consistent with the predictions of our model. We find that the magnitude
of renegotiations is substantial: renegotiations per concession-year average
9.5% of the initial investment in Colombia, 3.6% in Peru and 1.3% in Chile.
With concessions that last many decades, this suggests that the magnitude of
renegotiations will end up being larger than the initial investment for many
concessions, as is already the case for 11 out of the 25 concessions in Colombia.
Most of the cost of renegotiations falls on future administrations and in the
three countries more than 45% of renegotiations, as measured by volume, occur
during the construction phase, which can be interpreted as evidence against
incomplete contract models of renegotiations and in favor of our model.
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