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BANCO CENTRAL DE CHILE REVISIÓN DE PUBLICACIONES AGOSTO 2015 Esta sección tiene por objetivo presentar las más recientes investigaciones publicadas sobre diversos tópicos de la economía chilena. La presentación se divide en dos partes: una primera sección de listado de títulos de investigaciones y una segunda de títulos y resúmenes de publicaciones. Las publicaciones están agrupadas por área temática, considerando la clasificación de publicaciones del Journal of Economic Literature (JEL), y por orden alfabético de los autores. CATASTRO DE PUBLICACIONES RECIENTES Los resúmenes de los artículos indicados con (*) se presentan en la siguiente sección. Código JEL: E / MACROECONOMÍA Y ECONOMÍA MONETARIA *Edwards, S. (2015). “Monetary Policy Independence under Flexible Exchange Rates: An Illusion?” NBER Working Paper N°20893. Grigoli, F., A. Herman, A. Swiston y G. Di Bella (2015). “Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy”. IMF Working Paper N°15/14. Tafunell, X. y C. Ducoing (2015). “Non-Residential Capital Stock in Latin America, 1875-2008”. Economics Working Paper N°1472, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Código JEL: F / ECONOMÍA INTERNACIONAL Loaiza-Maya, R.A, J.E. Gomez-Gonzalez y L.F. Melo-Velandia (2015). “Exchange Rate Contagion in Latin America”. Research in International Business and Finance 34: 355–67. Rojas-Suárez, L. y J.M. Serena (2015). “Changes in Funding Patterns by Latin American Banking Systems: How Large? How Risky?” Documento de Trabajo N°1521, Banco de España. *Wagner, R. y A. Zahler (2015). “New Exports from Emerging Markets: Do Followers Benefit from Pioneers?” Journal of Development Economics 114: 203–23. Código JEL: G / ECONOMÍA FINANCIERA Araya, F., M. Jara, C. Maquieira y P. San Martín (2015). “Influencia de los Inversionistas Institucionales en las Decisiones de Estructura de Capital de la Empresa”. El Trimestre Económico 82(2): 279–311. 146 ECONOMÍA CHILENA | VOLUMEN 18, Nº2 | AGOSTO 2015 *Cueto, D. y L. Switzer (2015). “Intraday Market Liquidity, Corporate Governance, and Ownership Structure in Markets with Weak Shareholder Protection: Evidence from Brazil and Chile”. Journal of Management and Governance 19(2): 395–419. Dima, B., S.M. Dima y F. Barna (2015). “A Wavelet Analysis of Capital Markets’ Integration in Latin America”. Applied Economics 47(10-12): 1019–36. Tuesta, D. (2015). “The Informal Economy and the Constraints that It Imposes on Pension Contributions in Latin America”. Documento de Trabajo N°1419, Banco BBVA. Código JEL: O / DESARROLLO ECONÓMICO, CAMBIO TECNOLÓGICO Y CRECIMIENTO Álvarez, R., C. Bravo-Ortega y A. Zahler (2015). “Innovation and Productivity in Services: Evidence from Chile”. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 51(3): 593–611. Astorga, P. (2015). “Functional Inequality in Latin America: News from the Twentieth Century”. Working Papers N°135, Department of Economics, Oxford University. Bustos-Salvagno, J. y F. Fuentes (2015). “Interconexión Eléctrica en Chile: Precios versus Costos”. Documento de Investigación N°310, Facultad de Economía y Negocios, Universidad Alberto Hurtado. Chacón, E., S. Katherine. y D. Paredes (2015). “Desigualdad Espacial de Ingresos en Chile y su Relación con la Concentración de Capital Humano”. El Trimestre Económico 82(2): 351–77. Correa, J.A., F. Parro y L. Reyes (2015). “Self-Selection in the Market of Teachers”. Applied Economics 47(13-15): 1331–49. Cruces, G., P. Lanjouw, L. Lucchetti, E. Perova, R. Vakis y M. Viollaz (2015). “Estimating Poverty Transitions Using Repeated Cross-Sections: A ThreeCountry Validation Exercise”. Journal of Economic Inequality 13(2): 161–79. Espinoza, C. (2015). “Share Contract Choices and Economic Performance: Empirical Evidence from the Artisanal Fisheries Sector in Chile”. Marine Resource Economics 30(1): 71–95. Fuentes, C. (2015). “Shifting the Status Quo: Constitutional Reforms in Chile”. Latin American Politics and Society 57(1): 99–122. Joubert, C. (2015). “Pension Design with a Large Informal Labor Market: Evidence from Chile”. International Economic Review 56(2): 673-94. Martínez, C., E. Puentes y J. Ruiz-Tagle (2015). “Do Micro-Entrepreneurship Programs Increase Wage-Work? Evidence from Chile”. Documento de Trabajo N°461, Departamento de Economía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. 147 BANCO CENTRAL DE CHILE Miranda, P., C.A. Blazquez, R. Vergara y S. Weitzler (2015). “A Novel Methodology for Designing a Household Waste Collection System for Insular Zones”. Transportation Research: Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 77(C): 227–47. *Modrego, F., P. Mccann, W.E. Foster y M.R. Olfert (2015). “Regional Entrepreneurship and Innovation in Chile: A Knowledge Matching Approach”. Small Business Economics 44(3): 685–703. Patrinos, H.A. y C. Sakellariou (2015). “Adult Literacy, Heterogeneity and Returns to Schooling in Chile”. Education Economics 23(1-2): 122–36. Pomeranz, D. (2015). “No Taxation without Information: Deterrence and SelfEnforcement in the Value Added Tax”. American Economic Review 105(8): 2539–69. Schueftan, A. y A.D. González (2015). “Proposals to Enhance Thermal Efficiency Programs and Air Pollution Control in South-Central Chile”. Energy Policy 79: 48–57. Sittler, M., J. Abud, B. Hall y C. Helmers (2015). “An Empirical Analysis of Primary and Secondary Pharmaceutical Patents in Chile”. NBER Working Paper N°20995. Código JEL: Y / NO CLASIFICADOS Beyer, H., J. Hastings, C. Neilson y S. Zimmerman (2015). “Connecting Student Loans to Labor Market Outcomes: Policy Lessons from Chile”. American Economic Review 105(5): 508–13. Bharadwaj, P., G. De Giorgi, D. Hansen y C. Neilson (2015). “The Gender Gap in Mathematics: Evidence from a Middle-Income Country”. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report N°721. Bustos-Salvagno, J. y F. Fuentes (2015). “Economic Effects of Transmission Expansions: the Case of the Regulated Contract Market in Chile”. Documento de Investigación N°309, Facultad de Economía y Negocios, Universidad Alberto Hurtado. Cáceres-Delpiano, J., E. Giolito y S. Castillo (2015). “Early Impacts of College Aid”. Documento de Investigación N°311, Facultad de Economía y Negocios, Universidad Alberto Hurtado. Díaz Hurtado, F. y F. Lefort (2015). “External Conditions, the Evolution of Financial Risks, and the Informational Content of Stock Prices: The Case of Chile”. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 51: S42–57. Fairfield, T. (2015). “La Economía Política de la Reforma Tributaria Progresiva En Chile”. Revista de Economía Institucional 17(32): 129-56. Figueroa, E. y R. López (2015). “Fundamental Accrued Capital Gains and the Measurement of Top Incomes: An Application to Chile”. Documento de Trabajo N°409, Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Chile. 148 ECONOMÍA CHILENA | VOLUMEN 18, Nº2 | AGOSTO 2015 *Engel, E., R. Fischer y A. Galetovic (2015). “Soft Budgets and Renegotiations in Public-Private Partnerships: Theory and Evidence”. Documento de Trabajo N°317, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile. García-Marín, A. y N. Voigtländer (2015). “Exporting and Plant-Level Efficiency Gains: It’s in the Measure”. Documento de Trabajo N°405, Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Chile. Gazmuri, C., J. Manzi y R.D. Paredes (2015). “Disciplina, Clima y Desempeño Escolar en Chile”. CEPAL Review 115: 115–28. Jara, M., J. Dresdner y W. Gómez (2015). “Derechos Colectivos en Pesca Artesanal y los Intercambios en la Política Pesquera: Un Análisis de las Políticas Distributivas”. Estudios de Economía 42(1): 53–78. Prada, M., G. Rucci, y S.S. Urzúa (2015). “The Effect of Mandated Child Care on Female Wages in Chile”. NBER Working Paper N°21080. Umaña, B., J. Cabas, J. Rodríguez y M. Villablanca (2015). “Variables Explicativas del Comportamiento del Inversor de Multifondos. Un Análisis desde la Perspectiva de los Inversores en el Sistema de Pensiones Chileno”. Estudios Gerenciales 31(135): 183–90. Sánchez, A., J.M. García de la Cruz y A. del Sur Mora (2015). “Comercio Internacional, Materias Primas y Enfermedad Holandesa: Estudio Comparativo de los Efectos Estáticos en Noruega y Chile”. World Economy Journal 39: 179–99. Schnettler, B., M. Denegri, H. Miranda, J. Sepulveda, L. Orellana y G. Paiva (2015). “Family Support and Subjective Well-Being: An Exploratory Study of University Students in Southern Chile”. Social Indicators Research 122(3): 833–64. Toledo, G. y J.P. Valenzuela (2015). “Overestimating the Effects of Teacher Attributes on School Performance in the Chilean Education System”. Estudios de Economía 42(1): 99–128. RESÚMENES DE ARTÍCULOS SELECCIONADOS Los textos presentados a continuación son transcripciones literales del original. Código JEL: E / MACROECONOMÍA Y ECONOMÍA MONETARIA *Edwards, S. (2015). “Monetary Policy Independence under Flexible Exchange Rates: An Illusion?” NBER Working Paper N°20893. I analyze whether countries with flexible exchange rates are able to pursue an independent monetary policy, as suggested by traditional theory. I use data for three Latin American countries with flexible exchange rates, inflation targeting, and capital mobility—Chile, Colombia and Mexico—to investigate the extent to which Federal Reserve actions are translated into local central banks’ policy rates. The results indicate that there is significant “policy contagion,” and that 149 BANCO CENTRAL DE CHILE these countries tend to “import” Fed policies. The degree of monetary policy independence is lower than what traditional models suggest. Código JEL: F / ECONOMÍA INTERNACIONAL *Wagner, R. y A. Zahler (2015). “New Exports from Emerging Markets: Do Followers Benefit from Pioneers?” Journal of Development Economics 114: 203–23. We study the micro dynamics of new exports from a country. The modern international trade workhorse models (e.g. Melitz, 2003) assume heterogeneous productivity and, implicitly, predict that the ex-post largest exporters in a new product would be the pioneers, since they can pay back exploration costs. However, using detailed data on the early dynamics of new exports in Chile (1990–2007) we show that, on average, pioneers export less than comparable followers in the same new product. Moreover, followers are 40% more likely to enter a product if a pioneer survives more than one year exporting. These facts are consistent with pioneer-to-follower spillovers, or at least with stories in which the cost of entering early is disproportionally higher for larger exporters. Otherwise they would enter first. Firms better at “exploration” could be worse at “exploitation” (scale-up) in a new export product. This phenomenon is scarce, though, since in most new products pioneers are not followed, even if they survive. Código JEL: G / ECONOMÍA FINANCIERA *Cueto, D. y L. Switzer (2015). “Intraday Market Liquidity, Corporate Governance, and Ownership Structure in Markets with Weak Shareholder Protection: Evidence from Brazil and Chile”. Journal of Management and Governance 19(2): 395–419. This paper investigates the effects of very highly concentrated ownership structures on the liquidity of stock markets in a context of weak protection for minority shareholders. Such structures are prevalent in a number of European markets as well as in various developing markets, as opposed to US markets. Two alternative hypotheses are tested. The shareholder expropriation hypothesis predicts an inverse relationship between liquidity and ownership concentration for the dominant shareholder. The dominant monitor-insider hypothesis contends that dominant shareholders are not detrimental to market liquidity, since they have incentives to reduce their costs of exit and/ or to improve the information transfer of their value enhancing activities to markets. Our empirical results are more consistent with the latter. We find that alternative governance mechanisms also have liquidity enhancing effects for Brazilian and Chilean firms. In particular, cross-listing in the US market and the threat of outside takeovers serve as monitoring devices to reduce informational asymmetries. 150 ECONOMÍA CHILENA | VOLUMEN 18, Nº2 | AGOSTO 2015 Código JEL: O / DESARROLLO ECONÓMICO, CAMBIO TECNOLÓGICO Y CRECIMIENTO *Modrego, F., P. Mccann, W.E. Foster y M.R. Olfert (2015). “Regional Entrepreneurship and Innovation in Chile: A Knowledge Matching Approach”. Small Business Economics 44(3): 685–703. We provide a method of empirically testing the model using a dynamic knowledge matching (KM) function, which is applied to data on patent applications and new firms in Chilean municipalities for the period 2002-2008. The estimations confirm the explanatory power of the KM mechanism regarding the spatial variation of innovation in the country, a result that is largely robust to the consideration of other main hypotheses of regional innovation. This evidence warrants further consideration of the spatial dimension of innovation in the country. It also suggests that there are unexploited synergies to be had between support policies for innovation and support policies for entrepreneurship in the context of regional development initiatives. Código JEL: Y / NO CLASIFICADOS *Engel, E., R. Fischer y A. Galetovic (2015). “Soft Budgets and Renegotiations in Public-Private Partnerships: Theory and Evidence”. Documento de Trabajo N°317, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are an increasingly popular organizational form of providing public infrastructure. They can increase efficiency and improve resource allocation, yet pervasive contract renegotiations cast doubts on whether they should be preferred over public provision. Renegotiating a PPP contract allows the present government to extract resources from future governments in exchange for current infrastructure spending by the PPP. This option is not available under public provision. We develop a model that formalizes this idea and predicts that government will use renegotiations to anticipate spending and shift payments to future administrations. Regulating renegotiation procedures so as to avoid opportunistic behavior does not avoid the use of renegotiations to anticipate government spending, changing fiscal accounting rules does. We analyze data from Chile, Colombia and Peru, comprising 59 highway PPPs and 535 renegotiation processes, to conclude that the evidence is broadly consistent with the predictions of our model. We find that the magnitude of renegotiations is substantial: renegotiations per concession-year average 9.5% of the initial investment in Colombia, 3.6% in Peru and 1.3% in Chile. With concessions that last many decades, this suggests that the magnitude of renegotiations will end up being larger than the initial investment for many concessions, as is already the case for 11 out of the 25 concessions in Colombia. Most of the cost of renegotiations falls on future administrations and in the three countries more than 45% of renegotiations, as measured by volume, occur during the construction phase, which can be interpreted as evidence against incomplete contract models of renegotiations and in favor of our model. 151