Download Global warming threaten biodiversity in Canary Islands

Global warming threaten
biodiversity in Canary Islands
José L. Martín Esquivel
www.atlantic-island.eu
Observatory for Sustainable Development
Wallace Smith Broecker
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
JLME 2010
In 1975 we were having a cooling.
After that,
that
begun the current warming…
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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Sea surface temperature
p
((SST))
Winter
Summer
1,5
1
North Atlantic 20ºN 30ºN - Base period 1961-90
0,5
0
-0,5
-1
-1,5
Global warming is also noticeable in the ocean
North Atlantic 10ºN 20ºN - Base period 1961-90
In the past, the SST was much colder than at present
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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The termocline of 24ºC does not reach
the Canary Islands
There is a gradient of temperature west-east
due to a strong upwelling in the coast of Africa
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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2004
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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Millepora
Ramos AG, Martel A, Codd GA, Soler E, Coca J, Rdo A, Morrison LF, Metcalf JS, Ojeda A, Suarez S, Petit M (2005) Bloom of the marine diazotrophic cyanobacterium Trichodesmium erythraeum in the
Northwest African upwelling. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 301: 303-305
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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Ciguatera
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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2005
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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2005
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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CRYPTOGENIC
SPECIES*:
FISHES
* Carlton 1996. Evolution
1993
Gnatholepis thompsoni
In the last decades,,
up to 30 tropical
fishes has been cited
b fi
by
first time
i
in
i
Canary Islands
Chylomicterus spp
Total of species
Temperate species
Tropical species
135
120
105
90
75
60
45
30
15
1985
1991
2002
2006 2008
Canthydermis suflfamen
BRITO, A., J.M. FALCÓN & R. HERRERA (2005). Sobre la tropicalización reciente de la ictiofauna litoral de las islas Canarias y su relación con lo cambios ambientales y actividades antrópicas.
Vieraea 33: 515-525
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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CRYPTOGENIC
SPECIES:
BUTTERFLY
Global warming brings
butterfly invasions
Danaus chrysippus
Cacyreus marshalli
Hypolimnas missipus (female) Hypolimnas missipus (male)
Pérez-Arellano, J.L., O.P. Luzardo, A.P. Brito, M. Hernández, M. Zumbado, P. Carranza, A. Angel.Moreno, R.W. Dickey & L.D. Boada. 2005. Ciguatera Fish Poisoning, Canary Islands. Emerging Infectious
Diseases, 11(12): 1981-1082
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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CRYPTOGENIC
SPECIES:
BIRDS
Martinete común
2002
Avetorillo común - 1997
In the last decades,,
up to 30 tropical
birds has been cited
b fi
by
first time
i
in
i
Canary Islands
Garceta común - 1992
Cerceta pardilla 97
Tarro canelo - 1994
Boere, G.C. & D.A. Stroud. 2006. The flyway concept: what it is and what it isn’t. En G.C. Boere , C.A. Galbraith & D.A. Stroud (eds.) “Waterbirds around the world” . The Stationery Office, Edinburgh,
UK: 40-47.
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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REFERENCE SERIE OF TEMPERATURE
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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REFERENCE SERIE OF TEMPERATURE
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
JLME 2010
1921
1923
1925
1927
1929
1931
1933
1935
1937
1939
1941
1943
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
1921
1923
1925
1927
1929
1931
1933
1935
1937
1939
1941
1943
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
REFERENCE SERIE OF TEMPERATURE
2
1
+0.3ºC
0
‐1
PINATUBO
2‐
Homogenized by SNHT – Base period 1966-1995
Martin, Marrero (in prep)
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
JLME 2010
REFERENCE SERIE OF TEMPERATURE
Base period 1966-1995
22
1960-1969
1970-1979
1980-1989
1990-1999
2000-2009
21,5
Maximum
21
20,5
20
19,5
19
18 5
18,5
18
17,5
Average
0.15ºC/decade
Minimun
0.17ºC/decade
17
16,5
16
15,5
15
14,5
14
13,5
13
12,5
12
1960-1969
1970-1979
1980-1989
1990-1999
2000-2009
Martin, Marrero (in prep)
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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Forest fires
ALMOST 93% OF THE FOREST FIRES IN CANARY OCCURS IN SITUATIONS
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES, WITH INVASION OF SAHARAN AIR
THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF HEAT WAVES HAS GONE FROM ONE TO
FOUR
SINCE DE NINETIES, THE WAVES OF HEAT IN WINTER AND AUTUMN
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
Fire mapper 2000-2010
http://firefly.geog.umd.edu/firemap/
Sanz, R., C. Cardós & E. Narrera. 2008. Heat waves in the
Canaryy Islands.
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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Winter Jet Stream
+
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
JLME 2010
NAO Index (dec-mar 1854-2010)
NAO Index
Base period 1864-1983
Movil average factor 20
The NAO index went from
being negative to positive
in the begining of seventies
6
4
2
0
‐2
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
1957
1954
1951
1948
1945
1942
1939
1936
1933
1930
1927
1924
1921
1918
1915
1912
1909
1906
1903
1900
1897
1894
1891
1888
1885
1882
1879
1876
1873
1870
1867
‐6
1864
‐4
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/jhurrell/nao.stat.winter.html
Dic-Marzo
60’
60
70’
70
90’
90
80’
80
Dic
Marzo
Dic
Dic-Marzo
Marzo2000
60’
60
Di M
Dic-Marzo
M
50’
Dic-Marzo
Di
Alonso-Pérez, S., E. Cuevas, C. Pérez,
X. Querol, J. M. Baldasano, 2009.
Positive trends of African airmass
intrusions over the Subtropical
Eastern North Atlantic Ocean in winter
driven by the Azores high shift. 3th
Workshop on Mineral Dust, September
15-17, Leipzig, Germany.
Hurrell, J. W., and C. Deser, 2009: North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Mar. Syst., 78, No. 1, 28-41, DOI:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.11.026.
[Complete Article (.html)] [Complete Special Issue (.html)] [Complete Article (.pdf)] see page: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/jhurrell/nao.stat.winter.html
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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VERTEBRATES OF CANARY ISLANDS
(Not cryptogenic)
80
50,0%
70
45,0%
40,0%
60
NUMBER OF SPECIES
EXOTIC
SPECIES
Grouped by decades
35,0%
50
30,0%
40
25,0%
30
20,0%
15,0%
20
10,0%
10
0
5.0%
<1990 1900 1910 1020 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
NATIVES
50
46
53
32
0
42
41
47
57
69
74
76
EXOTICS
4
2
3
1
2
1
2
2
9
28
36
40
% EXOTICS
7,4% 7,0% 9,4% 9,2% 10,6% 10,3% 10,3% 10,3% 14,7% 28,7% 33,6% 38,6%
AFRICA
18
20
ASIA
16
18
AMERICA
14
16
EUROPA
OCEANIA
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
<1990 1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Martin, Ojeda, Rodriguez-Luengo (in prep)
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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EXOTIC
SPECIES
(Not cryptogenic)
EXOTIC VERTEBRATES ACCORDING CLIMATIC ORIGIN
40
COLD TAXA
COLD‐ACUMULATED
TEMPERATE TAXA
TEMPERATE ACUMULATED
WARM TAXA
WARM ACUMULATED
30
35
25
30
20
25
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
It is necessary
something
more than just
global
warming to
explain the
arrival to the
island of
species like
that.
0
<
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
EXOTIC PLANTS ACCORDING CLIMATIC ORIGIN
600
250
500
200
400
150
300
100
200
50
100
0
0
<
1900
1910
1020
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Martin, Ojeda, Rodriguez-Luengo (in prep)
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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GLOBALIZATION
Commercial Activity (Shipping)
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CHANGES ON ECOSYSTEMS
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Ombrotype: model of del Arco et al., 2006
Ombrotype: interpolated model
Termotype: model of del Arco et al., 2006
Termotype: interpolated model
Martin, Marrero (in prep B)
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
JLME 2010
POTENTIAL VEGETATION
Excluded antropized areas
Martin, Marrero (in prep B)
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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POTENTIAL VEGETATION
Excluded antropized areas
Martin, Marrero (in prep B)
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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+1 ºC
Martin, Marrero (in prep B)
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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+2 ºC
summit forest have not place to go
Martin, Marrero (in prep B)
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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+3 ºC
Martin, Marrero (in prep B)
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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+4 ºC
Martin, Marrero (in prep B)
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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600
Partida
+1 ºC
500
Nº cuadríclas o
ocupadas
+2 ºC
+3 ºC
400
+4 ºC
300
200
100
0
Tabaibal
dulce
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
Cardonal
Sabinar
Madroñal
Monteverde
mesofítico
Pinar
Retamar
JLME 2010
+2 ºC
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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+2 ºC
POTENTIAL OBSTACLES
1. Their skills do not allow dipersal
2. They can not overcome barriers
3. They do not have suitable habitats
+1 ºC
167 m
160 m
140 m
120 m
100 m
80 m
60 m
40 m
20 m
147 km
20 km 40 km 60 km 80 km 100 km 120 km 140 km
Jump, A., C. Matyas & J. Peñuelas. 2009. The altitude-for-latitude disparity in the range retractions of woody species. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 24: 694-701.
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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Assisted colonization
Euphydryas editha
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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Helianthemum
juliae
Risco Verde
Cañada de las Pilas
Mesa del Obispo
Marrero-Gómez, M.V., J.G. Oostermeijer, E. Carqué Alamo & A. Bañares. 2007. Population viability of the narrow endemic Helianthemum juliae (Cistaceae) in relation to
climate variability. Biological Conservation
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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Helianthemum
juliae
1. Without considering the weather
3
2. Considering climate of last 85 years
3 Climate 85 years plus reinforcement
3.
4. New locality (40% prob. of good year)
1
2
4
Marrero-Gómez, M.V., J.G. Oostermeijer, E. Carqué Alamo & A. Bañares. 2007. Population viability of the narrow endemic Helianthemum juliae (Cistaceae) in relation to
climate variability. Biological Conservation
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
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Thanks very much for your attention
José L. Martín Esquivel
www.atlantic-island.eu
Observatory for Sustainable Development
Agencia Canaria de Desarrollo Sostenible y Cambio Climático
JLME 2010