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A CGE model for Mexico María Eugenia Ibarrarán ! Univ. Iberoamericana Puebla ! ! ! ! ! Latin America Modeling Project! Belo Horizonte ! January 2012! ! Roy Boyd Ohio University ! ! ! !! Economic Structure Transformation process Consumption and distribution Government income & expenditure Ventas Particular features • Oil exhaustion so production increases to 3.3 mbd and then levels off • Imperfect competition in energy sector due to presence of state-owned monopolies in oil and power sectors (PEMEX and CFE) • Unemployment due to sticky wages • Distributional effects may be estimated by welfare change of different agents • Input-Output matrix for 2003 (INEGI 2006) • The model usually runs for 20 to 30 years and results are reported for 2010, 2020 and 2030 • Only CO2 emissions related to fossil fuel use are estimated, based on fixed technical coefficients • No land use is explicitly modeled • The model is national, regionalization is a desired step but resources are needed Recent studies • Modeling the Macroeconomic Impact of LEDS Policies for Mexico, INE 2011/12.! ! • Ibarrarán, M.E., R.E. Boyd and L. Moreno (2011), Costly commitments: Climate Change Policy in Mexico , Latin American Policy, 2, 2: 222–233.! ! • La ruta de México hacia una economía sustentable de baja intensidad de carbono, Centro Mario Molina 2010.! ! • Boyd, R. y M.E. Ibarrarán (2009), Extreme Climate Events and Adaptation: An exploratory analysis of drought in Mexico , Env. and Development Economics, 14: 371-395. ! • MEDEC policies under a general equilibrium approach, Mexico, 2009, WB, 2010.! ! • Cambios en Precios Relativos de Combustibles y Automóviles, UNAM 2009 ! • Macroeconomic Impacts of Mitigation Policies in Selected Sectors, C. Mario Molina 2008. ! ! • Evaluación de las implicaciones económicas de las políticas de adaptación y mitigación frente al cambio climático en México: Análisis de equilibrio general de la vulnerabilidad intersectorial, INE 2008. ! ! • Ibarrarán, M.E. R. Boyd (2006), Hacia el Futuro: Energy, Economics and the Environment in 21st Century Mexico, Springer. ! • Ibarrarán, M.E. and R. Boyd (2002), Cost of Compliance with the Kyoto Protocol: A Developing Country´s Perspective , Energy Economics, 24. ! • Ibarrarán, M.E. and R. Boyd (2001), A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Taxes and the Double Dividend: An Application of the Mexican Carbon Tax , Economic and Financial Modelling. ! • Ibarrarán, M.E. and R. Boyd (2001), Los Impuestos al Carbón y la Economía Mexicana: Impacto de la Observancia de las Restricciones a las Emisiones de Carbón para Contrarrestar el Cambio Climático , El Trimestre Económico, no. 270. ! ! ! Current expansions • Biofuels - study on biofuels, Ph.D. Dissertation A. Calderón • Fiscal assessment of energy (fossil fuels and power) and agricultural subsidies; different compensation mechanisms; breakup of a single labor market (formal/informal) - World Bank • Breakup of the electricity sector to represent renewable technologies - CIE-UNAM • Need to regionalize model to address impacts and adaptation to climate change