Download María Eugenia Ibarrarán Roy Boyd Univ. Iberoamericana Puebla

A CGE model for Mexico
María Eugenia Ibarrarán
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Univ. Iberoamericana Puebla !
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Latin America Modeling Project!
Belo Horizonte !
January 2012!
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Roy Boyd
Ohio University
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Economic Structure
Transformation process
Consumption and distribution
Government income & expenditure
Ventas
Particular features
•  Oil exhaustion so production increases to 3.3
mbd and then levels off
•  Imperfect competition in energy sector due to
presence of state-owned monopolies in oil
and power sectors (PEMEX and CFE)
•  Unemployment due to sticky wages
•  Distributional effects may be estimated by
welfare change of different agents
•  Input-Output matrix for 2003 (INEGI 2006)
•  The model usually runs for 20 to 30 years and
results are reported for 2010, 2020 and 2030
•  Only CO2 emissions related to fossil fuel use
are estimated, based on fixed technical
coefficients
•  No land use is explicitly modeled
•  The model is national, regionalization is a
desired step but resources are needed
Recent studies
• Modeling
the Macroeconomic Impact of LEDS Policies for Mexico, INE 2011/12.!
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• Ibarrarán, M.E., R.E. Boyd and L. Moreno (2011), Costly commitments: Climate Change Policy
in Mexico , Latin American Policy, 2, 2: 222–233.!
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• La ruta de México hacia una economía sustentable de baja intensidad de carbono, Centro
Mario Molina 2010.!
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• Boyd, R. y M.E. Ibarrarán (2009), Extreme Climate Events and Adaptation: An exploratory
analysis of drought in Mexico , Env. and Development Economics, 14: 371-395.
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• MEDEC policies under a general equilibrium approach, Mexico, 2009, WB, 2010.!
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• Cambios en Precios Relativos de Combustibles y Automóviles, UNAM 2009
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• Macroeconomic Impacts of Mitigation Policies in Selected Sectors, C. Mario Molina 2008.
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• Evaluación
de las implicaciones económicas de las políticas de adaptación y mitigación
frente al cambio climático en México: Análisis de equilibrio general de la vulnerabilidad
intersectorial, INE 2008.
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• Ibarrarán, M.E. R. Boyd (2006), Hacia el Futuro: Energy, Economics and the Environment
in 21st Century Mexico, Springer.
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• Ibarrarán, M.E. and R. Boyd (2002), Cost of Compliance with the Kyoto Protocol: A
Developing Country´s Perspective , Energy Economics, 24.
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• Ibarrarán, M.E. and R. Boyd (2001), A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Taxes
and the Double Dividend: An Application of the Mexican Carbon Tax , Economic and
Financial Modelling.
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• Ibarrarán, M.E. and R. Boyd (2001), Los Impuestos al Carbón y la Economía Mexicana:
Impacto de la Observancia de las Restricciones a las Emisiones de Carbón para
Contrarrestar el Cambio Climático , El Trimestre Económico, no. 270.
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Current expansions
•  Biofuels - study on biofuels, Ph.D. Dissertation
A. Calderón
•  Fiscal assessment of energy (fossil fuels and
power) and agricultural subsidies; different
compensation mechanisms; breakup of a
single labor market (formal/informal) - World
Bank
•  Breakup of the electricity sector to represent
renewable technologies - CIE-UNAM
•  Need to regionalize model to address impacts
and adaptation to climate change