Download • Climate Change Issues • Some Freshwater Effects • Examples of

Perspectives on Climate Change, Freshwater Ecosystems,
Adaptation/Mitigation (mostly examples from US)
Perspectivas sobre el Cambio Climático,
ecosistemas de agua dulce, adaptación /
mitigación (en su mayoría ejemplos de Estados
Unidos)
• Climate Change Issues
• Some Freshwater
Effects
• Examples of research
and strategies for
mitigation/adaptation
Cuestiones relativas al
cambio climático
Algunos efectos de agua
dulce
Ejemplos de la
investigación y las
estrategias para la
mitigación / adaptación
Freshwater and Climate Change
Agua y Cambio Climático
“Water is the most
significant resource that
is currently threatened
by climate change.
Water not only sustains
our environment, but it
also impacts the lives of
individuals and the
economic security of
nations.”
IPCC
Según el panel
intergubernamental sobre
el cambio climático, el
agua es el recurso más
importante que se está
amenazada por el cambio
climático. El agua no sólo
sustenta nuestro medio
ambiente, sino que
también impacta en la
vida de las personas y la
seguridad económica de
las naciones.
PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGES
Cambios climáticos proyectados
• Increases in air temp , thus
warmer waters
• Rainfall amounts: decline in
some areas and increase in
others
– snow prop. decreases
• Rainfall and storms are
expected to be more intense
• Rising sea level = inundation
of water infrastructure
– water treatment facilities,
and degrade coastal
groundwater resources
• El aumento de la
temperatura del aire, las
aguas más cálidas de este
modo
• Las cantidades de lluvia:
disminución en algunas
zonas y el aumento de otros
• Se espera que las lluvias y
las tormentas a ser más
intensa
• El aumento del nivel del
mar = inundación de la
infraestructura de agua
Observed Air Temperature Change
(1991-2012 vs 1901-1960)
COOLER
ENFRIADOR
HOTTER
Observado Cambio De Temperature de Aire
(1991-2012 vs 1901-1960)
Increases in Air Temp
Cause Increases in Water Temp
In Streams, Rivers, and Lakes
El aumento de la temperatura
del aire
I will arise and go now, for
Aumenta Causa en la temperatura
always del
night
and day
agua
I hear
water ríos
lapping
with
En lake
los arroyos,
y lagos
low sounds by the shore;
While I stand on the roadway,
or on the pavements gray,
I hear it in the deep heart’s core
William Butler Yeats from The Lake Isle of Innisfree
Ernest Litichius
“Falls of the Kaaterskill”
1857
Many temperate lakes display temperature stratification during summer
Muchos templado lagos estratificación de la temperatura pantalla durante el verano
Warm
más cálido
Cooler
Enfriador
Length of season in which differences in lake temperatures
with depth cause stratification (separate density layers) is
increasing in many lakes.
La longitud de la temporada en la que las diferencias en las
temperaturas del lago con causa profunda estratificación
(capas de densidad separadas) está aumentando en muchos
lagos.
Biology is affected: Cyanobacterial blooms
Biología se ve afectada:
de cianobacterias
Gloeotrichia blooms in Lake Sunapee, NH
Photos by Midge Eliassen
las floraciones
Observed Precipitation change: US
MÁS
MORE
LESS
MENOS
Cambio observado en las precipitaciones
Observed Change in VERY HEAVY Precipitation: US
Cambio observado en la precipitación muy intensa
US Trends in Flood Magnitude
1920s-2008
Estados Unidos Tendencias en magnitud de las inundaciones
MORE INTENSE STORMS GREATER SEDIMENT and NUTRIENT LOADS,
DECREASE WATER QUALITY
Tormentas más intensas MAYOR sedimentos y nutrientes CARGAS,
CALIDAD DEL AGUA PARA DISMINUCIÓN
Adaptation?
Adaptación?
US Interagency Climate Change
Adaptation Task Force
•
•
•
•
•
•
• Mejorar recursos de agua &
información sobre cambio climático
Improve water resources &
climate change information for para la toma de decisiones
decision making
• Fortalecer evaluación de la
Strengthen assessment of
vulnerabilidad de recursos de agua al
vulnerability of water
cambio climático
resources to CC
• Establecer procesos de planificación
Establish planning process to
para adaptar el manejo de recursos
adapt water resource
de agua en el contexto del cambio
management to changing
climate
climático
Expand water use efficiency • Mejorar eficiencia en el uso de agua
• Apoyar el manejo integrado de los
Support integrated water
resource management
recursos de agua
Support training and outreach • Apoyar la capacitación y
to build response capacity
sensibilización para fortalezer la
capacidad de respuestas al cambio
climático
Data collection, assessment,
monitoring,
and modeling for
adaptive management
La recolección de datos,
la evaluación,
monitoreo,
y modelando para
manejo adaptativo
US FEDERAL and STATE Biologists survey aquatic resources to document effects
of changing TEMPERATURES and WATER QUALITY on BIOLOGY
FEDERAL y biólogos ESTATALES estudio de los recursos acuáticos para
documentar los efectos
de los cambios de temperatura y calidad del agua en la biología
Determining effects of Climate Change on Rio Grande
Cutthroat Trout
La determinación de los efectos del cambio climático en
Río Grande trucha de asesinoL
Urban Water Supply (New York City)
Abastecimiento Urbano (ejemplo)
150km north
NEW YORK CITY
NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY (~19 reservoirs)
Supplies 9M People
NUEVA YORK EL ABASTECIMIENTO DE
AGUA DE LA CIUDAD (~ 19 embalses)
Suministros 9M todos, agua
Ashokan Reservoir
Crédito de la foto: Perri Paul y Tom Mills, NYC DEP
NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY (~19 reservoirs)
Supplies 9M People
NUEVA YORK EL ABASTECIMIENTO DE
AGUA DE LA CIUDAD (~ 19 embalses)
Suministros 9M todos, agua
Ashokan Reservoir before Hurricane Irene
Embalse de Ashoka antes del huracán Irene
Ashokan Reservoir: After Hurricane Irene
Turbidity remained high for months.
Used high frequency sensor data and models to predict impacts
and provide water to NYC residents.
Después del huracán Irene turbidez mantenido
alta durante meses.
Datos de los sensores de alta frecuencia usados y modelos
para predecir los impactos
y proporcionar agua a los residentes de Nueva York.
Research networks (example)
Las redes de investigación (ejemplo)
GLEON
Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network
Networked lake science
www.gleon.org (est. 2004)
Ciencia lago en red
Argentina
Australia
Austria
Brazil
Canada
Chile
China
Colombia
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Germany
Hungary
India
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Kenya
Netherlands
New Zealand
Nigeria
Pakistan
Poland
Puerto Rico
Russia
South Korea
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Taiwan
Turkey
United Kingdom
GLEON
Networked lake science
Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network
Mission: GLEON conducts innovative
science by sharing and interpreting highresolution sensor data to understand,
predict and communicate the role and
response of lakes in a changing global
environment
Argentina
Australia
Austria
Brazil
Canada
Chile
China
Colombia
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Germany
Hungary
India
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Kenya
Netherlands
New Zealand
Nigeria
Pakistan
Poland
Puerto Rico
Russia
South Korea
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Taiwan
Turkey
United Kingdom
GLEON
Networked lake science
Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network
Misión: gleon lleva a cabo ciencia
innovadora mediante el intercambio y la
interpretación de los datos del sensor de
alta resolución de entender, predecir y
comunicar el papel y la respuesta de los
lagos en un entorno global cambiante
Argentina
Australia
Austria
Brazil
Canada
Chile
China
Colombia
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Germany
Hungary
India
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Kenya
Netherlands
New Zealand
Nigeria
Pakistan
Poland
Puerto Rico
Russia
South Korea
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Taiwan
Turkey
United Kingdom
… a network of lake observatories …
Una red de observatorios lago…
More than 80 lakes across 6
continents and 34 countries
Lake Sunapee, USA
Ormajärven, Finland
Torrens Lake, Australia
Yuan Yang Lake, Taiwan
Lake
Mangueira,
Brazil
Crystal Bog, USA
Lake Plomo, Chile
Lake Annie, USA
Lake Rotorua,
NZ
Lake Erken, Sweden
… a network of data
…Una red de datos
Y lo más importante de una
red de base de la gente ...
Membership
And most importantly a
grassroots network of
people…
450 members
49 countries
Antarctica
Example of Buoy Data Use to Predict
Cyanobacterial Blooms: CHINA
Credit: Gwangwei Zhu
Ejemplo de uso de boyas de datos PARA
PREDECIR FLORACIONES cianobacterias:
CHINA
Development of algal bloom in Taihu
Desarrollo de la floración de algas en Taihu en
el tiempo
1950’s
1980
1970’s
1994
2000
1987
2006
Early-warning: harmful algal bloom
Alerta temprana: la floración de algas nocivas
EMB01
EMB02
EMB03
EMB08
EMB10
EMB11
EMB12
EMB13
EMB14
13 High frequency monitoring systems were built for basic data of the model
13 sistemas de monitoreo de alta frecuencia se construyeron para los datos básicos del modelo
The 3-days
forecasting and
early-warning
report of harmful
algal to public
El informe de 3 días
de previsión y
alerta temprana de
algas nocivas al
público
Adaptation and Mitigation?
Adaptación y Mitigación?
• We are in new territory: high
uncertainty
• Reduce risk
– e.g., Infrastructure, redesign
stormwater systems, climate
forecasting
• Integrated approach
– Socio-environmental, low impact
development
• Science-based adaptive
management
– Alter way systems are designed,
operated, and maintained, (New
York City)
• Feedbacks!
• Estamos en un nuevo territorio:
una alta uncertidumbre
• Reducir el riesgo
– por ejemplo, infraestructura,
sistemas de aguas pluviales de
rediseño, el pronóstico del clima
• enfoque integrado
– Socio-ambiental, developmenf bajo
impacto
• Gestión adaptativa basada en la
ciencia
– Alteraciones en el sistema vías
están diseñados, operados y
mantenidos, (Nueva York)
• evaluaciones
PROJECTED CHANGES in WATER WITHDRAWALS
ESPANOL—Again, not sure I will use and will also hide the figure legend, eventually
TOXIC ALGAE BLOOMS ARE
INCREASING
ESPANOL
Drinking waterborne disease outbreaks and 90
percentile precipitation events
ESPANOL
(Curriero et al. 2001)
We distinguish between
the enabling environment for adaptation and
specific implementing measures to manage
flood risk. Enabling includes routine
monitoring, flood forecasting, data exchange,
institutional reform, bridging organizations,
contingency planning for disasters, insurance
and legal incentives to reduce vulnerability. All
such activities are ‘low regret’ in that they
yield benefits regardless of the climate
scenario but are not cost-free.
Adapting to flood risk under climate change
Robert L. Wilby [email protected]
Loughborough University, UK
Rod Keenan
University of Melbourne, Australia
Adaptation and Institutional
Responses (NCA)
• In most U.S. regions, water resources managers and
planners will encounter new risks, vulnerabilities, and
opportunities that may not be properly managed
within existing practices.
• Increasing resilience and enhancing adaptive capacity
provide opportunities to strengthen water resources
management and plan for climate change impacts.
Many institutional, scientific, economic, and political
barriers present challenges to implementing adaptive
strategies.
Power plant cooling is a critical national water
use, because nearly 90% of the U.S. electrical
energy is produced by thermoelectric power
plants
Interagency 2011 report
Ten Indicators of a Warming World
ESPANOL
NYCDEP has a very complex modeling environment. It currently does analysis using the Variable
Source Loading Function (VSLF) or the SWAT watershed models. These can in turn provide inputs t
one of two reservoir models: a one-dimensional reservoir eutrophication model; or a twodimensional reservoir turbidity transport model (CEQual W2). The OASIS reservoir system operatio
model requires measured or simulated water inputs to the reservoirs and simulates the storage an
transfer of water between the 19 reservoirs comprising the NYC water supply system. The watersh
models, take daily temperature and precipitation data to generate streamflow and
evapotranspiration, as well as a number of water quality parameters. Outputs of the watershed
models can be used to drive both the OASIS system model and reservoir water quality models. A
knowledge of reservoir operations is an important determinate of reservoir water quality, and a
needed input to the reservoir models. For future climate simulations, where historical operations a
not known, OASIS simulation are needed to specify reservoir operation scenarios associated with a
given climate scenario. All of the above models were in use at NYCDEP to evaluate the impacts of
changes in watershed management, land-use, and reservoir operation policies. This integrated
modeling system was easily adapted for evaluation of the effects of climate change, once credible
future scenarios of the meteorological variables needed to drive the models were available.
Water Temperature Also Changing: Affects Timing and Length of Lake Stratification
La temperatura del agua también cambiante:
Afecta momento y la duración de Estratificación
Near Surface
Cerca de
la superficie
Near Bottom
Cerca de la
parte inferior
LAKE SUNAPEE, New Hampshire, USA
Lake Stratification Begins
Comienza Estratificación